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AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
FC Twente logo
FC Utrecht
FC Volendam
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
Go Ahead Eagles
Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo
NEC
PEC Zwolle
PSV
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Excelsior
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Vitesse
Ajax
Eredivisie | Gameweek 24
Mar 3, 2024 at 11.15am UK
Johan Cruijff Arena
FC Utrecht

Ajax
2 - 0
Utrecht

Brobbey (39'), Taylor (77')
Mannsverk (65')
Rensch (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Azarkan (36'), Flamingo (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and FC Utrecht, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: AZ 2-0 Ajax
Sunday, February 25 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Utrecht 1-0 Heracles
Friday, February 23 at 7pm in Eredivisie

We said: Ajax 3-2 FC Utrecht

This has traditionally been viewed as a likely home win given the gulf in class between the sides, yet a potential thriller could play out on this occasion. No-one would be surprised if Utrecht ran out winners in Amsterdam, but we are going to give the benefit of the doubt to Ajax in a high-scoring game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 59.31%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 20.23%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 1-0 (7.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.19%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
AjaxDrawFC Utrecht
59.31% (-1.192 -1.19) 20.46% (0.475 0.48) 20.23% (0.719 0.72)
Both teams to score 60.81% (-0.489 -0.49)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.1% (-1.19 -1.19)35.9% (1.189 1.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.01% (-1.322 -1.32)57.99% (1.32 1.32)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.12% (-0.68600000000001 -0.69)11.88% (0.687 0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.82% (-1.483 -1.48)37.18% (1.483 1.48)
FC Utrecht Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)31% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.7% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)67.3% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Ajax 59.31%
    FC Utrecht 20.23%
    Draw 20.46%
AjaxDrawFC Utrecht
2-1 @ 9.79% (0.044 0.04)
2-0 @ 8.36% (0.041 0.04)
1-0 @ 7.84% (0.251 0.25)
3-1 @ 6.95% (-0.162 -0.16)
3-0 @ 5.93% (-0.136 -0.14)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.097 -0.1)
4-1 @ 3.7% (-0.192 -0.19)
4-0 @ 3.16% (-0.163 -0.16)
4-2 @ 2.17% (-0.114 -0.11)
5-1 @ 1.58% (-0.128 -0.13)
5-0 @ 1.35% (-0.109 -0.11)
5-2 @ 0.92% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 3.49%
Total : 59.31%
1-1 @ 9.19% (0.289 0.29)
2-2 @ 5.73% (0.024 0.02)
0-0 @ 3.68% (0.215 0.22)
3-3 @ 1.59% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 20.46%
1-2 @ 5.38% (0.167 0.17)
0-1 @ 4.31% (0.249 0.25)
0-2 @ 2.53% (0.145 0.15)
2-3 @ 2.24% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.1% (0.065 0.07)
0-3 @ 0.99% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 20.23%

How you voted: Ajax vs Utrecht

Ajax
65.5%
Draw
10.3%
FC Utrecht
24.1%
29
Head to Head
Oct 22, 2023 11.15am
Gameweek 9
Utrecht
4-3
Ajax
Flamingo (44'), Van der Hoorn (48'), Toornstra (71'), Fraulo (90')
Seuntjens (90+4')
Hlynsson (52', 55'), Bergwijn (65' pen.)
Sosa (75'), Tahirovic (83')
May 21, 2023 1.30pm
Gameweek 33
Ajax
3-1
Utrecht
Bergwijn (20'), Brobbey (68'), Klaassen (90+3')
Douvikas (49')
Douvikas (75')
Aug 28, 2022 11.15am
Gameweek 4
Utrecht
0-2
Ajax

Boussaid (54'), Dost (88')
Berghuis (10'), Brobbey (45+1')
Maduro (35'), Rensch (36'), Tadic (70')
Jan 16, 2022 11.15am
Gameweek 17
Utrecht
0-3
Ajax

Maher (20'), Boussaid (45+1')
Antony (5'), Brobbey (19', 45+2')
Mazraoui (65')
Oct 3, 2021 1.30pm
Gameweek 7
Ajax
0-1
Utrecht
Warmerdam (77')
van der Maarel (38'), Paes (63'), Maher (67'), Maduro (79')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV30263195177881
2Feyenoord30226277235472
3FC Twente30186656302660
4AZ AlkmaarAZ30167759352455
5Ajax3013986356748
6NECNijmegen301211759441547
7FC UtrechtUtrecht3012994341245
8Go Ahead Eagles30119104439542
9Sparta RotterdamSparta30117124543240
10Heerenveen30106145056-636
11Fortuna SittardSittard3098133452-1835
12Almere CityAlmere City30712113048-1833
13PEC Zwolle3088144058-1832
14Heracles3095164062-2232
15SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior30510154464-2025
16RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk3066182950-2124
17FC VolendamVolendam3047193074-4419
RVitesse3045212268-46-1


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