Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 22.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.57%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 (7.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.