Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 50.23%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 26.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (6.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.