Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RKC Waalwijk win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 21.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a RKC Waalwijk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.91%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (6.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.