Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 21.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.23%) and 1-3 (5.14%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (7.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.