Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 46.05%. A win for Palestino had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.24%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Palestino win was 1-0 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.