Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 6, 2025 at 11pm UK

Estadio Victor Agustin Ugarte

Nacional
2 - 2
Guarani

Hoyos (37'), Gaspar Diellos (61')
Azogue (86')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Fernandez (63', 88' pen.)
Daniel Perez Centurion (45+1'), Javier Benitez Cabrera (57')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Nacional Potosi and Guarani.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional Potosi

Last Game: Boston River 2-1 Nacional
Tuesday, April 22 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Guarani

Last Game: Guarani 2-1 Independiente
Tuesday, April 22 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional Potosi win with a probability of 53.59%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Guarani had a probability of 22.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional Potosi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Guarani win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result
Nacional Potosi	Draw	Guarani
53.59% ( 0.39)	24.13% ( -0.56)	22.27% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 51.44% (

1.88)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.28% (

2.38)

49.72% (

-2.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.27% (

2.1)

71.73% (

-2.09)

Nacional Potosi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.52% (

1.06)

18.48% (

-1.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.31% (

1.76)

49.68% (

-1.76)

Guarani Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.1% (

1.51)

36.9% (

-1.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.31% (

1.47)

73.69% (

-1.47)

Score Analysis

Nacional Potosi 53.59%

Guarani 22.27%

Draw 24.12%

Nacional Potosi	Draw	Guarani
1-0 @ 11.51% ( -0.74) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.46% ( 0.25) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.23) 4-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.18) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.13) Other @ 3.26% Total : 53.59%	1-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 6.82% ( -0.69) 2-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.12%	0-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.38) 1-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.73% Total : 22.27%