Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 11, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Rogelio Lorenzo Livieres

Guarani
2 - 0
Nacional

Fernandez (11', 11'), Patino (45+5', 45+5')
Maiz (81'), Maiz (81')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Torrico Franco (54'), Torrico Franco (54'), Azogue (58'), Azogue (58'), Fernando Pavia Mamani (88'), Fernando Pavia Mamani (88'), Hoyos (90+3'), Hoyos (90+3')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Guarani and Nacional Potosi.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guarani

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Last Game: Boston River 3-3 Guarani
Tuesday, April 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Nacional Potosi

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Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Independiente
Tuesday, April 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guarani win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Nacional Potosi had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guarani win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Nacional Potosi win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guarani would win this match.

Result
GuaraniDrawNacional Potosi
38.14% (-1.542 -1.54)27.67% (0.127 0.13)34.19% (1.417 1.42)
Both teams to score 48.67% (-0.102 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.89% (-0.256 -0.26)57.11% (0.258 0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.01% (-0.203 -0.2)77.98% (0.20699999999999 0.21)
Guarani Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71% (-1.01 -1.01)29% (1.012 1.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.1% (-1.269 -1.27)64.89% (1.272 1.27)
Nacional Potosi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.54% (0.81999999999999 0.82)31.45% (-0.819 -0.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.16% (0.939 0.94)67.83% (-0.937 -0.94)
Score Analysis
    Guarani 38.14%
    Nacional Potosi 34.18%
    Draw 27.67%
GuaraniDrawNacional Potosi
1-0 @ 11.29% (-0.21 -0.21)
2-1 @ 8.08% (-0.199 -0.2)
2-0 @ 6.99% (-0.334 -0.33)
3-1 @ 3.34% (-0.18 -0.18)
3-0 @ 2.88% (-0.225 -0.23)
3-2 @ 1.93% (-0.059 -0.06)
4-1 @ 1.03% (-0.087 -0.09)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 38.14%
1-1 @ 13.06% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 9.12% (0.09 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.68% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 0.82%
Total : 27.67%
0-1 @ 10.54% (0.33 0.33)
1-2 @ 7.55% (0.197 0.2)
0-2 @ 6.1% (0.325 0.33)
1-3 @ 2.91% (0.139 0.14)
0-3 @ 2.35% (0.175 0.18)
2-3 @ 1.8% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 34.18%