Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 11, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Rogelio Lorenzo Livieres

Guarani
2 - 0
Nacional

Fernandez (11', 11'), Patino (45+5', 45+5')
Maiz (81'), Maiz (81')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Torrico Franco (54'), Torrico Franco (54'), Azogue (58'), Azogue (58'), Fernando Pavia Mamani (88'), Fernando Pavia Mamani (88'), Hoyos (90+3'), Hoyos (90+3')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Guarani and Nacional Potosi.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guarani

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Boston River 3-3 Guarani
Tuesday, April 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Nacional Potosi

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Independiente
Tuesday, April 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guarani win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Nacional Potosi had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guarani win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Nacional Potosi win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guarani would win this match.

Result
GuaraniDrawNacional Potosi
38.14% (-1.542 -1.54)27.67% (0.127 0.13)34.19% (1.417 1.42)
Both teams to score 48.67% (-0.102 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.89% (-0.256 -0.26)57.11% (0.258 0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.01% (-0.203 -0.2)77.98% (0.20699999999999 0.21)
Guarani Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71% (-1.01 -1.01)29% (1.012 1.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.1% (-1.269 -1.27)64.89% (1.272 1.27)
Nacional Potosi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.54% (0.81999999999999 0.82)31.45% (-0.819 -0.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.16% (0.939 0.94)67.83% (-0.937 -0.94)
Score Analysis
    Guarani 38.14%
    Nacional Potosi 34.18%
    Draw 27.67%
GuaraniDrawNacional Potosi
1-0 @ 11.29% (-0.21 -0.21)
2-1 @ 8.08% (-0.199 -0.2)
2-0 @ 6.99% (-0.334 -0.33)
3-1 @ 3.34% (-0.18 -0.18)
3-0 @ 2.88% (-0.225 -0.23)
3-2 @ 1.93% (-0.059 -0.06)
4-1 @ 1.03% (-0.087 -0.09)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 38.14%
1-1 @ 13.06% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 9.12% (0.09 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.68% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 0.82%
Total : 27.67%
0-1 @ 10.54% (0.33 0.33)
1-2 @ 7.55% (0.197 0.2)
0-2 @ 6.1% (0.325 0.33)
1-3 @ 2.91% (0.139 0.14)
0-3 @ 2.35% (0.175 0.18)
2-3 @ 1.8% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 34.18%

rhs 2.0


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!