Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 70.02%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Guarani had a probability of 10.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.03%) and 3-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.02%), while for a Guarani win it was 0-1 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.