Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 14, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Nacional de Lima

Cristal
0 - 1
Cerro Porteno

Pacheco (20'), Pacheco (20'), Lutiger (45+1'), Lutiger (45+1'), Chavez (53'), Chavez (53'), Tavara (70'), Tavara (70'), Alarcon (90+6'), Alarcon (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Iturbe (14', 14')
Perez (6'), Perez (6'), Torres (45+4'), Torres (45+4'), Piris (53'), Piris (53')
Torres (83'), Torres (83')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Sporting Cristal and Cerro Porteno.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Cristal

Last Game: Cristal 2-1 Bolivar
Thursday, May 8 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

Cerro Porteno

Last Game: Cerro Porteno 0-2 Palmeiras
Thursday, May 8 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Cristal win with a probability of 49.99%. A win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 25.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Cristal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest Cerro Porteno win was 0-1 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
Sporting Cristal	Draw	Cerro Porteno
49.99% ( -0.02)	24.89% ( -0)	25.12% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 52.29% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.84% (

0.02)

50.15% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.88% (

0.02)

72.12% (

-0.02)

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.92% (

-0)

20.07% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.69% (

-0)

52.31% (

Cerro Porteno Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.42% (

0.03)

34.57% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.7% (

0.04)

71.29% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Sporting Cristal 49.99%

Cerro Porteno 25.12%

Draw 24.88%

Sporting Cristal	Draw	Cerro Porteno
1-0 @ 11.14% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.95% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.09% 3-0 @ 4.79% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.04% 4-0 @ 1.92% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.77% Total : 49.99%	1-1 @ 11.83% 0-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.88%	0-1 @ 7.37% 1-2 @ 6.29% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.79% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.39% ( 0) Other @ 2.15% Total : 25.12%