Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 10, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Hernando Siles
Sporting Cristal

Bolivar
3 - 0
Cristal

Gomes (12' pen., 12' pen.), Vaca (44', 44', 58', 58')
Melgar (62'), Melgar (62'), Sagredo (65'), Sagredo (65')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Avila (6'), Avila (6'), Lutiger (29'), Lutiger (29'), Cabellos (90+2'), Cabellos (90+2')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Bolivar and Sporting Cristal.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolivar

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Last Game: Cerro Porteno 4-2 Bolivar
Tuesday, April 1 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Sporting Cristal

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Last Game: Cristal 2-3 Palmeiras
Thursday, April 3 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 65.67%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 15.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.12%) and 1-0 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.32%), while for a Sporting Cristal win it was 1-2 (4.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.

Result
BolivarDrawSporting Cristal
65.67% (0.094000000000008 0.09)18.49% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)15.84% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06)
Both teams to score 59.09% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.9% (0.048000000000002 0.05)34.09% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.03% (0.054000000000002 0.05)55.96% (-0.061 -0.06)
Bolivar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.28% (0.033000000000001 0.03)9.72% (-0.038 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.62% (0.084999999999994 0.08)32.37% (-0.090000000000003 -0.09)
Sporting Cristal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.45% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)34.55% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.73% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)71.26% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Bolivar 65.67%
    Sporting Cristal 15.84%
    Draw 18.49%
BolivarDrawSporting Cristal
2-1 @ 9.7% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 9.12% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.83% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.53% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.09% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 4.39% (0.012 0.01)
4-0 @ 4.13% (0.016 0.02)
3-2 @ 4% (0.00099999999999945 0)
4-2 @ 2.33% (0.004 0)
5-1 @ 2.05% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.93% (0.01 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.09% (0.004 0)
Other @ 4.48%
Total : 65.67%
1-1 @ 8.32% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.36% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.42% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 18.49%
1-2 @ 4.42% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-1 @ 3.57% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.9% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.83% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.57% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 15.84%