Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 3, 2025 at 11pm UK

Estadio Nacional de Lima

Cristal
2 - 3
Palmeiras

Pretell (67'), Tavara (83')
Pretell (12'), Sosa (45'), Cabellos (75')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Willian (38'), Piquerez (82' pen.), Rios (90+2')
Roque (45+1'), Martinez (57'), Fuchs (61')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Sporting Cristal and Palmeiras.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Cristal

Last Game: Cristal 3-1 Always Ready
Wednesday, February 28 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Palmeiras

All competitions

Last Game: Palmeiras 0-0 Botafogo
Sunday, March 30 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Sporting Cristal win was 1-0 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.

Result
Sporting Cristal	Draw	Palmeiras
31.44% ( 1.27)	25.33% ( 0.31)	43.23% ( -1.57)

Both teams to score 55.31% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.74% (

-0.78)

48.26% (

0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.59% (

-0.72)

70.41% (

0.72)

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.16% (

0.47)

28.84% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.3% (

0.58)

64.7% (

-0.57)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.73% (

-1.05)

22.27% (

1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.28% (

-1.61)

55.72% (

1.61)

Score Analysis

Sporting Cristal 31.44%

Palmeiras 43.23%

Draw 25.32%

Sporting Cristal	Draw	Palmeiras
1-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.35) 2-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 4.97% ( 0.28) 3-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.14) 4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.6% Total : 31.44%	1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.32%	0-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.01% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 7.24% ( -0.23) 1-3 @ 4.51% ( -0.23) 0-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.24) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.14) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.29% Total : 43.23%