Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 8, 2025 at 3am UK

Estadio Nacional de Lima

Cristal
2 - 1
Bolivar

Cauteruccio (5', 5', 48', 48')
Pretell (37'), Pretell (37'), Gonzales (52'), Gonzales (52'), Chavez (89'), Chavez (89')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Vaca (73', 73')
Cristian Velasquez (45+1'), Cristian Velasquez (45+1'), Torren (52'), Torren (52'), Sagredo (62'), Sagredo (62')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Sporting Cristal and Bolivar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Cristal

Last Game: Cerro Porteno 2-2 Cristal
Friday, April 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Bolivar

Last Game: Bolivar 2-3 Palmeiras
Thursday, April 24 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Cristal win with a probability of 48.79%. A win for Bolivar had a probability of 28.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Cristal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.58%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Bolivar win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Cristal in this match.

Result
Sporting Cristal	Draw	Bolivar
48.79% ( -0.55)	22.8% ( 0.12)	28.41% ( 0.43)

Both teams to score 62.28% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.7% (

-0.26)

38.3% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.42% (

-0.28)

60.58% (

0.28)

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84% (

-0.3)

16% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.68% (

-0.54)

45.31% (

0.54)

Bolivar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.14% (

0.15)

25.86% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.16% (

0.21)

60.84% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Sporting Cristal 48.79%

Bolivar 28.41%

Draw 22.79%

Sporting Cristal	Draw	Bolivar
2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 7.58% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.95% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.95% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.68% Total : 48.79%	1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.79%	1-2 @ 6.93% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 5.6% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 3.13% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.37% Total : 28.41%