Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 56.67%. A win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 22.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.13%) and 1-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Cerro Porteno win was 1-2 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.