Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 29, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Hernando Siles

Bolivar
4 - 0
Cerro Porteno

Romero (41', 41'), Melgar (45+2', 45+2'), Rodriguez (50', 50'), Gomes (80', 80')
Melgar (27'), Melgar (27'), Rodriguez (44'), Rodriguez (44'), Matheus (67'), Matheus (67'), Gomes (81'), Gomes (81'), Savio (90+3'), Savio (90+3')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Velazquez (44'), Velazquez (44'), Viera (56'), Viera (56'), Piris (90+3'), Piris (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Bolivar and Cerro Porteno, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolivar

Last Game: Palmeiras 2-0 Bolivar
Thursday, May 15 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Cerro Porteno

Last Game: Cristal 0-1 Cerro Porteno
Wednesday, May 14 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 56.67%. A win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 22.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.13%) and 1-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Cerro Porteno win was 1-2 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.

Result
Bolivar	Draw	Cerro Porteno
56.67% ( -0.1)	21.26% ( 0.06)	22.07% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 60.83% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.83% (

-0.25)

37.17% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.63% (

-0.27)

59.37% (

0.27)

Bolivar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.97% (

-0.11)

13.03% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.41% (

-0.23)

39.59% (

0.23)

Cerro Porteno Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.95% (

-0.11)

30.06% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.82% (

-0.13)

66.19% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Bolivar 56.67%

Cerro Porteno 22.08%

Draw 21.26%

Bolivar	Draw	Cerro Porteno
2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 6.64% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.52% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.87% Total : 56.67%	1-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.27% Total : 21.26%	1-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 2.97% Total : 22.08%