Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 41.61%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.