Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 56.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.98% and a win for Henan had a probability of 20.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.45%) , while for a Henan win it was 1-2 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.