Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 56.75%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 20.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Plymouth Argyle win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.