Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 57.36%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 21.49% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.31%) and 1-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 1-2 (5.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.