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FA Cup

Sutton United
FA Cup | Second Round
Dec 2, 2023 at 3pm UK
The Borough Sports Ground

Sutton
3 - 0
Horsham

Pereira (64', 74'), Patrick (89')
Clay (52'), Kizzi (60')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Sutton United and Horsham, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sutton United

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Sutton 1-1 Crewe
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League Two

Horsham

All competitions
Last Game: Horsham 0-3 Barnsley
Tuesday, November 14 at 7.30pm in FA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 49.03%. A win for Horsham had a probability of 27.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Horsham win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.

Result
Sutton UnitedDrawHorsham
49.03% (-2.832 -2.83)23.19% (0.48 0.48)27.77% (2.348 2.35)
Both teams to score 60.33% (0.508 0.51)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.35% (-0.302 -0.3)40.65% (0.298 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.97% (-0.312 -0.31)63.03% (0.307 0.31)
Sutton United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.21% (-1.127 -1.13)16.79% (1.123 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.25% (-2.046 -2.05)46.75% (2.04 2.04)
Horsham Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.5% (1.566 1.57)27.49% (-1.572 -1.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37% (1.979 1.98)63% (-1.984 -1.98)
Score Analysis
    Sutton United 49.03%
    Horsham 27.77%
    Draw 23.19%
Sutton UnitedDrawHorsham
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.177 -0.18)
1-0 @ 8.24% (-0.203 -0.2)
2-0 @ 7.35% (-0.473 -0.47)
3-1 @ 5.65% (-0.328 -0.33)
3-0 @ 4.37% (-0.462 -0.46)
3-2 @ 3.64% (-0.046 -0.05)
4-1 @ 2.52% (-0.25 -0.25)
4-0 @ 1.95% (-0.29 -0.29)
4-2 @ 1.63% (-0.084 -0.08)
Other @ 4.2%
Total : 49.03%
1-1 @ 10.63% (0.21 0.21)
2-2 @ 6.13% (0.154 0.15)
0-0 @ 4.62% (0.063 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.57% (0.048 0.05)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 23.19%
1-2 @ 6.87% (0.423 0.42)
0-1 @ 5.96% (0.334 0.33)
0-2 @ 3.85% (0.371 0.37)
1-3 @ 2.96% (0.301 0.3)
2-3 @ 2.64% (0.177 0.18)
0-3 @ 1.66% (0.224 0.22)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.134 0.13)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 27.77%

How you voted: Sutton vs Horsham

Sutton United
55.6%
Draw
11.1%
Horsham
33.3%
9