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FA Cup | Fourth Round
Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
Elland Road
Plymouth Argyle

Leeds
1 - 1
Plymouth

Anthony (31')
Anthony (31')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Randell (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Leeds United and Plymouth Argyle, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Leeds 1-0 Norwich
Wednesday, January 24 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Plymouth 3-1 Cardiff
Saturday, January 20 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Leeds United 3-1 Plymouth Argyle

While changes are expected from both sides, that should only add to the uncertainty of who prevails at Elland Road. Plymouth will back themselves to at least earn a replay, but Leeds should still have enough quality to come through regardless of the team that they select. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 68.52%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 13.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 1-0 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.23%), while for a Plymouth Argyle win it was 1-2 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
Leeds UnitedDrawPlymouth Argyle
68.52% (0.624 0.62) 17.84% (-0.25 -0.25) 13.64% (-0.372 -0.37)
Both teams to score 55.56% (-0.138 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.12% (0.327 0.33)35.88% (-0.325 -0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.03% (0.36000000000001 0.36)57.97% (-0.358 -0.36)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.47% (0.23699999999999 0.24)9.53% (-0.234 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.07% (0.55 0.55)31.93% (-0.548 -0.55)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.41% (-0.312 -0.31)38.59% (0.312 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.67% (-0.299 -0.3)75.33% (0.3 0.3)
Score Analysis
    Leeds United 68.52%
    Plymouth Argyle 13.64%
    Draw 17.84%
Leeds UnitedDrawPlymouth Argyle
2-0 @ 10.16% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.68% (-0.037999999999998 -0.04)
1-0 @ 8.65% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
3-0 @ 7.96% (0.119 0.12)
3-1 @ 7.58% (0.049 0.05)
4-0 @ 4.68% (0.118 0.12)
4-1 @ 4.46% (0.074 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.61% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.2% (0.078 0.08)
4-2 @ 2.12% (0.017 0.02)
5-1 @ 2.1% (0.057 0.06)
5-2 @ 1% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 4.34%
Total : 68.52%
1-1 @ 8.23% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-2 @ 4.61% (-0.058 -0.06)
0-0 @ 3.68% (-0.06 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 17.84%
1-2 @ 3.92% (-0.091 -0.09)
0-1 @ 3.5% (-0.087 -0.09)
0-2 @ 1.67% (-0.057 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.46% (-0.031 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.24% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 13.64%

How you voted: Leeds vs Plymouth

Leeds United
73.7%
Draw
21.1%
Plymouth Argyle
5.3%
19
Head to Head
Nov 11, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 16
Leeds
2-1
Plymouth
James (21'), Piroe (28')
Gruev (90+3')
Waine (84')
Randell (33'), Whittaker (61'), Edwards (66'), Gibson (89')
Apr 7, 2007 3pm
Leeds
2-1
Plymouth
Michalik (87'), Healy (45')
Gray (73')
Halmosi (36')
Timar (49')
Nov 25, 2006 3pm
Plymouth
1-2
Leeds
Djordjic (40')
Aljofree (23'), Seip (33'), Hayles (82'), Ebanks-Blake (83')
Lewis (61'), Blake (3')
Westlake (32'), Douglas (70')
Apr 8, 2006 3pm
Jan 2, 2006 3pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CManchester CityMan City38287396346291
2Arsenal38285591296289
3Liverpool382410486414582
4Aston Villa382081076611568
5Tottenham HotspurSpurs382061274611366
6Chelsea381891177631463
7Newcastle UnitedNewcastle381861485622360
8Manchester UnitedMan Utd38186145758-160
9West Ham UnitedWest Ham381410146074-1452
10Crystal Palace381310155758-149
11Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton381212145562-748
12Bournemouth38139165467-1348
13Fulham38138175561-647
14Wolverhampton WanderersWolves38137185065-1546
15Everton38139164051-1140
16Brentford38109195665-939
17Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest3899204967-1832
RLuton TownLuton3868245285-3326
RBurnley3859244178-3724
RSheffield UnitedSheff Utd38372835104-6916


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