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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 47.3%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Oxford United |
| 47.3% ( | 26.22% ( | 26.48% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.48% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.59% ( | 54.41% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.21% ( | 75.78% ( |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77% ( | 23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.2% ( | 56.8% ( |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.27% ( | 35.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.49% ( | 72.51% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City | Draw | Oxford United |
| 1-0 @ 12.07% ( 2-1 @ 9.13% ( 2-0 @ 8.88% ( 3-1 @ 4.48% ( 3-0 @ 4.35% ( 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 4-1 @ 1.64% ( 4-0 @ 1.6% ( Other @ 2.85% Total : 47.3% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( 0-0 @ 8.22% ( 2-2 @ 4.7% ( Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.22% | 0-1 @ 8.46% ( 1-2 @ 6.4% ( 0-2 @ 4.35% ( 1-3 @ 2.19% ( 2-3 @ 1.61% ( 0-3 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 1.97% Total : 26.48% |