Championship

Championship | Gameweek 28

Jan 21, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

The Kassam Stadium

Oxford Utd
3 - 2
Luton

Helik (23'), Brown (59'), Leigh (69')
Phillips (10'), Brannagan (83'), Long (85')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Krauss (11'), McGuinness (26')
Nelson (24'), Krauss (38'), Jones (50')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Oxford United and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Oxford United

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Oxford Utd 1-0 Blackburn
Saturday, January 18 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Luton Town

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Luton 0-0 Preston
Saturday, January 18 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 39.07%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.

Result
Oxford United	Draw	Luton Town
39.07% ( 0.27)	27.27% ( -0.05)	33.66% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 49.81% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.36% (

0.15)

55.64% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.21% (

0.13)

76.8% (

-0.12)

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.25% (

0.23)

27.75% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.68% (

0.29)

63.32% (

-0.29)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.94% (

-0.07)

31.06% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.62% (

-0.09)

67.38% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Oxford United 39.06%

Luton Town 33.65%

Draw 27.26%

Oxford United	Draw	Luton Town
1-0 @ 11.04% 2-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.54% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.92% Total : 39.06%	1-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.62% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.26%	0-1 @ 10.07% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.55% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.89% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0) Other @ 3.01% Total : 33.65%