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Championship | Gameweek 31
Feb 8, 2025 at 3pm UK
Carrow Road
Derby logo

Norwich
1 - 1
Derby

Sargent (68')
Fisher (30'), Doyle (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Yates (89' pen.)
Adams (27'), Phillips (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Norwich City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Watford 0-1 Norwich
Saturday, February 1 at 12.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Sheff Utd
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Norwich City 2-0 Derby County

Norwich City head into Saturday's clash off the back of securing victories over Swansea and Watford in their last two outings and will be backing themselves to keep the juggernaut rolling against an out-of-sorts Derby County side. The Rams' form is currently nothing to write home about and we see them struggling at Carrow Road this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.

Result
Norwich CityDrawDerby County
52.06% (0.127 0.13) 23.5% (-0.209 -0.21) 24.45% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 56.07% (0.783 0.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.17% (0.997 1)44.83% (-0.995 -0.99)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.81% (0.953 0.95)67.19% (-0.952 -0.95)
Norwich City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.77% (0.416 0.42)17.23% (-0.414 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.47% (0.728 0.73)47.53% (-0.726 -0.73)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.74% (0.61199999999999 0.61)32.26% (-0.61 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.25% (0.688 0.69)68.75% (-0.68600000000001 -0.69)
Score Analysis
    Norwich City 52.06%
    Derby County 24.45%
    Draw 23.49%
Norwich CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.77% (-0.286 -0.29)
2-1 @ 9.72% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.59% (-0.132 -0.13)
3-1 @ 5.7% (0.085 0.09)
3-0 @ 5.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.22% (0.101 0.1)
4-1 @ 2.51% (0.071 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.22% (0.027 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 3.87%
Total : 52.06%
1-1 @ 11.05% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 5.56% (-0.242 -0.24)
2-2 @ 5.5% (0.099 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.058 0.06)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.49%
0-1 @ 6.29% (-0.165 -0.17)
1-2 @ 6.26% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.56% (-0.033 -0.03)
1-3 @ 2.36% (0.049 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.07% (0.071 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.34% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 24.45%

How you voted: Norwich vs Derby

Norwich City
90.2%
Draw
7.8%
Derby County
2.0%
51
Head to Head
Sep 28, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 7
Derby
2-3
Norwich
Forsyth (60'), Taylor (90+1')
Forsyth (21'), Chirewa (77'), Goudmijn (79')
Sainz (45+3', 65', 87')
Duffy (24'), Cordoba (90+5')
Apr 10, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 41
Derby
0-1
Norwich

Shinnie (11'), Bird (15'), Forsyth (20'), Roberts (68')
Dowell (21')
Oct 3, 2020 12.30pm
Gameweek 4
Norwich
0-1
Derby

Buendia (44'), Zimmermann (54'), Rupp (86')
Rooney (87')
Shinnie (79'), Knight (79')
Dec 29, 2018 3pm
Gameweek 25
Norwich
3-4
Derby
Godfrey (25'), Pukki (31', 81')
Zimmermann (5'), Aarons (45'), Vrancic (62')
Tomori (36'), Mount (45'), Jozefzoon (87'), Marriott (90')
Evans (66'), Holmes (90'), Wilson (90')
Oct 3, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
1-1
Norwich
Bryson (86')
Bogle (62')
Klose (69')
Zimmermann (45'), Lewis (54')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds382311476255180
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd38257653282580
3Burnley382115252114178
4Sunderland381912755371869
5Coventry CityCoventry38178135548759
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom381318748341457
7Bristol City38141594941857
8Middlesbrough38159145748954
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn38157164240252
10Watford38157164751-452
11Millwall381312133739-251
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds38149155359-651
13Norwich CityNorwich381213136054649
14Preston North EndPreston381017113944-547
15Queens Park RangersQPR381112154450-645
16Swansea CitySwansea38128183849-1144
17Portsmouth38119184661-1542
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd381012163955-1642
19Hull City381011173947-841
20Stoke CityStoke38912173751-1439
21Cardiff CityCardiff38912174262-2039
22Derby CountyDerby38108204051-1138
23Luton TownLuton3898213460-2635
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth38712194077-3733


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