Championship

Championship | Gameweek 26

Jan 4, 2025 at 3pm UK

Ashton Gate Stadium

Bristol City
1 - 0
Derby

McNally (19')
Mehmeti (28'), McCrorie (35'), Roberts (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Thompson (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Bristol City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bristol City

All competitions

Last Game: Plymouth 2-2 Bristol City
Wednesday, January 1 at 12.30pm in Championship

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Sheff Weds 4-2 Derby
Wednesday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol City win with a probability of 57.13%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 18.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.69%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bristol City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Bristol City.

Result
Bristol City	Draw	Derby County
57.13% ( -0.98)	24.61% ( 0.3)	18.26% ( 0.67)

Both teams to score 44.27% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.81% (

-0.21)

56.19% (

0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.75% (

-0.17)

77.25% (

0.17)

Bristol City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.41% (

-0.46)

19.59% (

0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.47% (

-0.75)

51.53% (

0.74)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.05% (

0.7)

44.94% (

-0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.11% (

0.55)

80.89% (

-0.56)

Score Analysis

Bristol City 57.12%

Derby County 18.26%

Draw 24.6%

Bristol City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 14.35% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 11.69% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.36% ( -0.23) 3-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.58% Total : 57.12%	1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 8.81% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.59% Total : 24.6%	0-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.59% Total : 18.26%