Championship

Championship | Gameweek 27

Jan 18, 2025 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
0 - 2
Watford

Elder (19')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Louza (4'), Kayembe (66')
Abankwah (1'), Ngakia (31'), Sierralta (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Leyton Orient 1-1 Derby (6-5 pen.)
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Watford

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Cardiff 1-1 Watford
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 50.86%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Watford had a probability of 24.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Watford
50.86% ( 0.03)	24.61% ( -0.19)	24.53% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 52.55% (

0.77)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.48% (

0.93)

49.52% (

-0.93)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.45% (

0.83)

71.55% (

-0.83)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.53% (

0.38)

19.47% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.67% (

0.61)

51.33% (

-0.61)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.26% (

0.65)

34.74% (

-0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.53% (

0.68)

71.47% (

-0.68)

Score Analysis

Derby County 50.85%

Watford 24.53%

Draw 24.61%

Derby County	Draw	Watford
1-0 @ 11.06% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.05% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.96% Total : 50.85%	1-1 @ 11.7% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.61%	0-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.11% Total : 24.53%