Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queens Park Rangers win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Watford had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queens Park Rangers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Queens Park Rangers would win this match.