Championship

Championship | Gameweek 29

Jan 25, 2025 at 3pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff
2 - 1
Derby

Robinson (62', 62'), El Ghazi (64', 64')
Chambers (45+4'), Ng (59')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Salvesen (71', 71')
Elder (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Cardiff City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cardiff City

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Millwall 2-2 Cardiff
Tuesday, January 21 at 8pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Derby 0-1 Sunderland
Tuesday, January 21 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 43.57%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.

Result
Cardiff City	Draw	Derby County
43.57% ( -0.05)	27.27% ( -0)	29.15% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 48.16% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.03% (

0.03)

56.96% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.13% (

0.02)

77.86% (

-0.03)

Cardiff City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.06% (

-0.01)

25.94% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.05% (

-0.02)

60.94% (

0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.03% (

0.05)

34.96% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.29% (

0.06)

71.7% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Cardiff City 43.56%

Derby County 29.15%

Draw 27.27%

Cardiff City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 12.23% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.68% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.9% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.71% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.05% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 2.16% Total : 43.56%	1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 9.07% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.56% ( 0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.27%	0-1 @ 9.53% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.76% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0) Other @ 2.14% Total : 29.15%