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Championship | Gameweek 29
Jan 25, 2025 at 3pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Derby logo

Cardiff
2 - 1
Derby

Robinson (62'), El Ghazi (64')
Chambers (45+4'), Ng (59')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Salvesen (71')
Elder (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Cardiff City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 0-1 Sunderland
Tuesday, January 21 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Cardiff City 2-0 Derby County

Looking to continue their impressive unbeaten run in January, Cardiff should have more than enough quality to cause Derby serious issues this weekend. The Rams look like a different team amid an injury crisis in defence, and we feel that Warne's men will slump to yet another defeat on Saturday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 43.57%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.

Result
Cardiff CityDrawDerby County
43.57% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05) 27.27% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 29.15% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Both teams to score 48.16% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.03% (0.027999999999999 0.03)56.96% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.13% (0.023 0.02)77.86% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.06% (-0.012999999999991 -0.01)25.94% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.05% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)60.94% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.03% (0.051000000000002 0.05)34.96% (-0.055 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.29% (0.056999999999999 0.06)71.7% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Cardiff City 43.56%
    Derby County 29.15%
    Draw 27.27%
Cardiff CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 12.23% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 8.68% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 8.26% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.9% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 3.71% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.05% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 1.32% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.25% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 43.56%
1-1 @ 12.86%
0-0 @ 9.07% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.56% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 27.27%
0-1 @ 9.53% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 6.76% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.01% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.37% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.75% (0.006 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.6% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 29.15%

How you voted: Cardiff vs Derby

Cardiff City
62.9%
Draw
17.1%
Derby County
20.0%
35
Head to Head
Sep 14, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 5
Derby
1-0
Cardiff
Goudmijn (28')
Adams (20'), Mendez-Laing (69')

Bagan (56'), Fish (61'), Ralls (65')
May 7, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 46
Derby
0-1
Cardiff

Thompson (73')
Hugill (55')
Ng (69'), Harris (81')
Mar 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Cardiff
1-0
Derby
Ikpeazu (85')
Davies (26'), Doughty (90+2')

Buchanan (52'), Davies (62'), Bird (80'), Ebosele (90+3')
Mar 2, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 34
Cardiff
4-0
Derby
Bacuna (22', 56'), Moore (48'), Vaulks (90+3')
Oct 28, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Derby
1-1
Cardiff
Waghorn (24')
Jozwiak (82'), Shinnie (86'), te Wierik (90')
Moore (77')
Morrison (82'), Ojo (90+1'), Bacuna (90+3')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds31199362194366
2Burnley31161323792861
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd30196541212061
4Sunderland301610445261958
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn31136123531445
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom301014639271244
7Middlesbrough301281049391044
8Norwich CityNorwich30119104942742
9Bristol City30101283835342
10Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds30119104346-342
11Coventry CityCoventry31118124140141
12Watford30125134042-241
13Queens Park RangersQPR311011103540-541
14Millwall301010103027340
15Preston North EndPreston3081393338-537
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd31910123445-1137
17Swansea CitySwansea3097143242-1034
18Stoke CityStoke30711122837-932
19Cardiff CityCardiff30710133351-1831
20Portsmouth3079143652-1630
21Hull City3078153140-929
22Derby CountyDerby3076173241-927
23Luton TownLuton3076173049-1927
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth30510152963-3425


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