Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheffield United win with a probability of 39.01%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheffield United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sheffield United in this match.