Championship Gameweek 14
Nov 3, 2026 7.45pm
Pride Park Stadium

Derby County vs Norwich City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Oct 31, 2026 3.00pm
Millwall 4 - 1 Derby
Goals scored
11
Top scorer
Sammie Szmodics

Norwich City

All competitions
Last game
Oct 31, 2026 12.30pm
Norwich 3 - 2 Watford
Goals scored
23
Top scorer
Mohamed Touré

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Norwich City win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 35.45% and a draw has a probability of 25.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (7.85%) and 0-2 (5.75%). The likeliest Derby County win is 2-1 (7.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.52%).

Result

Derby County 35.45% ▼ (-0.20)
Draw 25.03% ▼ (-0.40)
Norwich City 39.56% ▲ (+0.68)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.52% ▲ (+1.54)

Goals

Over 1.5 79% ▲ (+1.24)
Under 1.5 21% ▼ (-1.24)
Over 2.5 56.59% ▲ (+1.99)
Under 2.5 43.41% ▼ (-1.96)
Over 3.5 34.7% ▲ (+2.39)
Under 3.5 65.3% ▼ (-2.35)
Over 4.5 20.28% ▲ (+1.93)
Under 4.5 79.72% ▼ (-1.94)

First Half Winner

Derby County 27.69% ▼ (-0.01)
Draw 42.28% ▼ (-0.08)
Norwich City 30.02% ▲ (+0.06)

Team To Score First

Derby County 43.44% ▼ (-0.04)
No Goal 5.48% ▼ (-0.41)
Norwich City 51.08% ▲ (+0.45)

Corners

Over 8 60.31% ▲ (+0.49)
Equal 8 11.37% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 8 28.33% ▼ (-0.46)
Over 9 48.48% ▲ (+0.45)
Equal 9 11.82% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 9 39.69% ▼ (-0.49)
Over 10.5 37.22% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 10.5 62.78% ▼ (-0.40)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 39.04% ▲ (+0.90)
Under 1.5 60.96% ▼ (-0.90)
Over 2.5 16.48% ▲ (+0.79)
Under 2.5 83.52% ▼ (-0.79)
Over 3.5 5.59% ▲ (+0.47)
Under 3.5 94.41% ▼ (-0.47)

Norwich City Goals

Over 0.5 73.95% ▲ (+0.80)
Under 0.5 26.05% ▼ (-0.79)
Over 1.5 42.69% ▲ (+1.63)
Under 1.5 57.31% ▼ (-1.63)
Over 2.5 19.15% ▲ (+1.47)
Under 2.5 80.85% ▼ (-1.47)
Over 3.5 7.19% ▲ (+0.89)
Under 3.5 92.81% ▼ (-0.88)

Score analysis

Derby County 35.45%
Draw 25.04%
Norwich City 39.55%
Derby County
2-1 @ 7.98% ▼ (-0.16)
1-0 @ 7.71% ▼ (-0.41)
2-0 @ 5.13% ▼ (-0.21)
3-1 @ 3.91% ▲ (+0.08)
3-2 @ 2.95% ▲ (+0.21)
3-0 @ 2.46% ▼ (-0.13)
Other @ 5.31% ▲ (+0.41)
Total : 35.45%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.52% ▼ (-0.40)
2-2 @ 6.19% ▲ (+0.20)
0-0 @ 5.48% ▼ (-0.41)
3-3 @ 1.57% ▲ (+0.17)
Other @ 0.28% ▲ (+0.07)
Total : 25.04%
Norwich City
1-2 @ 8.65% ▼ (-0.09)
0-1 @ 7.85% ▼ (-0.38)
0-2 @ 5.75% ▼ (-0.14)
1-3 @ 4.33% ▲ (+0.20)
2-3 @ 3.26% ▲ (+0.28)
0-3 @ 2.8% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 6.91% ▲ (+0.83)
Total : 39.55%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 44
Apr 21, 2026 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Carrow Road
  • Mohamed Touré 9' yellowcard
  • Mohamed Touré 33' goal
  • Liam Gibbs 60' goal
  • Mathias Kvistgaarden 62' yellowcard
  • Errol Mundle-Smith 80' yellowcard
  • Anis Slimane 80' yellowcard
  • Sam Field 88' yellowcard
  • goal David Ozoh 54'
  • yellowcard Max Johnston 67'
  • yellowcard Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 67'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 67'
  • yellowcard Oscar Fraulo 75'
  • yellowcard Owen Eames 87'
Championship
Oct 21, 2025 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Championship Gameweek 31
Feb 8, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Carrow Road
  • Kellen Fisher 30' yellowcard
  • Joshua Sargent 68' goal
  • Callum Doyle 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 27'
  • yellowcard Nat Phillips 59'
  • goal Jerry Yates 89'
Championship Gameweek 7
Sep 28, 2024 12.30pm
2
3
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Craig Forsyth 21' yellowcard
  • Craig Forsyth 60' goal
  • Tawanda Chirewa 77' yellowcard
  • Kenzo Goudmijn 79' yellowcard
  • Corey Taylor 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Shane Duffy 24'
  • goal Borja Sainz 45'+3'
  • goal Borja Sainz 65'
  • goal Borja Sainz 87'
  • yellowcard Jose Cordoba 90'+5'
Championship Gameweek 41
Apr 10, 2021 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Graeme Shinnie 11' yellowcard
  • Max Bird 15' yellowcard
  • Craig Forsyth 20' yellowcard
  • Patrick Roberts 68' yellowcard
  • goal Kieran Dowell 21'
Championship Gameweek 4
Oct 3, 2020 12.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Carrow Road
  • Emiliano Buendia 44' yellowcard
  • Christoph Zimmermann 54' yellowcard
  • Lukas Rupp 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Graeme Shinnie 79'
  • yellowcard Jason Knight 79'
  • goal Wayne Rooney 87'