Championship Gameweek 10
Oct 14, 2026 7.45pm
MATRADE Loftus Road

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Queens Park Rangers

All competitions
Last game
Oct 9, 2026 8.00pm
West Ham 1 - 1 QPR
Goals scored
11
Top scorer
Ilias Chair

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Oct 10, 2026 3.00pm
Derby 1 - 1 Wrexham
Goals scored
8
Top scorer
Sammie Szmodics

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Queens Park Rangers win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 29.88% and a draw has a probability of 25.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Queens Park Rangers win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Derby County win is 1-2 (7.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.97%).

Result

Queens Park Rangers 44.95% ▲ (+0.02)
Draw 25.13% ▼ (-0.11)
Derby County 29.88% ▲ (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.4% ▲ (+0.34)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.29% ▲ (+0.23)
Under 1.5 21.71% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 2.5 54.92% ▲ (+0.43)
Under 2.5 45.08% ▼ (-0.43)
Over 3.5 32.38% ▲ (+0.44)
Under 3.5 67.62% ▼ (-0.43)
Over 4.5 18.51% ▲ (+0.33)
Under 4.5 81.49% ▼ (-0.33)

First Half Winner

Queens Park Rangers 33.92% ▼ (-0.01)
Draw 41.12%
Derby County 24.96% ▲ (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Queens Park Rangers 51.61% ▲ (+0.11)
No Goal 5.55% ▼ (-0.11)
Derby County 42.84%

Corners

Over 8 66.83% ▲ (+0.27)
Equal 8 10.69% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 8 22.48% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 9 55.08% ▲ (+0.22)
Equal 9 11.76% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 9 33.16% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 10.5 43.31% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 10.5 56.69% ▼ (-0.14)

Queens Park Rangers Goals

Over 1.5 45.9% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 1.5 54.1% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 2.5 20.91% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 2.5 79.09% ▼ (-0.21)
Over 3.5 7.6% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 3.5 92.4% ▼ (-0.13)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 67.06% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 0.5 32.94% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 1.5 33.81% ▲ (+0.24)
Under 1.5 66.19% ▼ (-0.24)
Over 2.5 12.58% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 2.5 87.42% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 3.5 3.89% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 3.5 96.11% ▼ (-0.10)

Score analysis

Queens Park Rangers 44.95%
Draw 25.13%
Derby County 29.86%
Queens Park Rangers
2-1 @ 9.47%
1-0 @ 9.09% ▼ (-0.11)
2-0 @ 7.04% ▼ (-0.06)
3-1 @ 4.8% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 3.76% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.35% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 7.44% ▲ (+0.13)
Total : 44.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.97% ▼ (-0.09)
2-2 @ 6.05% ▲ (+0.05)
0-0 @ 5.55% ▼ (-0.11)
3-3 @ 1.4% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.16% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 25.13%
Derby County
1-2 @ 7.45%
0-1 @ 7.01% ▼ (-0.09)
0-2 @ 4.38% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 3% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.43% ▲ (+0.04)
0-3 @ 1.86%
Other @ 3.73% ▲ (+0.09)
Total : 29.86%

Head to Head

Championship
Apr 25, 2026 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 1
FT MATRADE Loftus Road
  • Harvey Vale 13' goal
  • Kealey Adamson 46' yellowcard
  • Richard Kone 55' goal
  • R. Burrell 62' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Madsen 62' yellowcard
  • Ilias Chair 68' yellowcard
  • Koki Saito 79' yellowcard
  • goal Oscar Fraulo 25'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 61'
  • yellowcard Jaydon Banel 61'
  • yellowcard Jaydon Banel 62'
  • yellowcard David Ozoh 62'
  • yellowcard David Ozoh 63'
  • yellowcard Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 75'
  • goal Sondre Langås 76'
  • goal Jaydon Banel 88'
  • yellowcard Danny Batth 90'+1'
Championship
Oct 25, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Championship Gameweek 33
Feb 14, 2025 8.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium
  • Ilias Chair 21' goal
  • Koki Saito 35' goal
  • Ilias Chair 57' goal
  • Ronnie Edwards 66' goal
  • yellowcard Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 65'
  • yellowcard Kayden Jackson 90'+4'
Championship Gameweek 9
Oct 5, 2024 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Eiran Cashin 38' yellowcard
  • Curtis Nelson 54' goal
  • Marcus Harness 55' goal
  • yellowcard Jimmy Dunne 90'+6'
Championship Gameweek 43
Apr 18, 2022 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Andre Dozzell 59' yellowcard
  • Sam Field 72' yellowcard
  • Luke Amos 88' goal
  • yellowcard Tom Lawrence 56'
  • redcard Tom Lawrence 90'+8'
Championship Gameweek 20
Nov 29, 2021 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Tom Lawrence 10' goal
  • goal Chris Willock 50'
  • goal Andre Gray 90'
  • yellowcard Andre Gray 90'+1'