Championship Gameweek 15
Nov 6, 2026 8.00pm
Pride Park Stadium

Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Oct 31, 2026 3.00pm
Millwall 4 - 1 Derby
Goals scored
11
Top scorer
Sammie Szmodics

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
Last game
Oct 31, 2026 3.00pm
Bolton 2 - 3 Bristol City
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Sam Dalby

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 40.28%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 34.18% and a draw has a probability of 25.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Derby County win is 1-0 (8.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.19%).

Result

Derby County 34.18% ▲ (+0.19)
Draw 25.48% ▼ (-0.38)
Bolton Wanderers 40.28% ▲ (+0.13)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.9% ▲ (+1.73)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.68% ▲ (+1.40)
Under 1.5 24.32% ▼ (-1.40)
Over 2.5 51.42% ▲ (+1.93)
Under 2.5 48.58% ▼ (-1.93)
Over 3.5 29.54% ▲ (+1.61)
Under 3.5 70.46% ▼ (-1.61)
Over 4.5 16.27% ▲ (+1.08)
Under 4.5 83.73% ▼ (-1.08)

First Half Winner

Derby County 28.43% ▼ (-0.25)
Draw 41.87% ▼ (-0.25)
Bolton Wanderers 29.69% ▲ (+0.49)

Team To Score First

Derby County 46.34% ▼ (-0.03)
No Goal 6.51% ▼ (-0.59)
Bolton Wanderers 47.15% ▲ (+0.61)

Corners

Over 8 64.87% ▲ (+0.86)
Equal 8 10.82%
Under 8 24.3% ▼ (-0.86)
Over 9 53.17% ▲ (+0.75)
Equal 9 11.7% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 9 35.13% ▼ (-0.85)
Over 10.5 41.63% ▲ (+0.59)
Under 10.5 58.37% ▼ (-0.59)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 35.21% ▲ (+1.12)
Under 1.5 64.79% ▼ (-1.12)
Over 2.5 13.73% ▲ (+0.55)
Under 2.5 86.27% ▼ (-0.55)
Over 3.5 4.26% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 3.5 95.74% ▼ (-0.20)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5 73.17% ▲ (+0.66)
Under 0.5 26.83% ▼ (-0.67)
Over 1.5 40.26% ▲ (+1.22)
Under 1.5 59.74% ▼ (-1.22)
Over 2.5 16.63% ▲ (+0.92)
Under 2.5 83.37% ▼ (-0.93)
Over 3.5 5.8% ▲ (+0.43)
Under 3.5 94.2% ▼ (-0.43)

Score analysis

Derby County 34.17%
Draw 25.47%
Bolton Wanderers 40.27%
Derby County
1-0 @ 8.42% ▼ (-0.33)
2-1 @ 7.88% ▲ (+0.14)
2-0 @ 5.3% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 3.54% ▲ (+0.09)
3-2 @ 2.52% ▲ (+0.13)
3-0 @ 2.33% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 4.18% ▲ (+0.18)
Total : 34.17%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.19% ▼ (-0.21)
0-0 @ 6.51% ▼ (-0.59)
2-2 @ 5.61% ▲ (+0.28)
3-3 @ 1.08%
Other @ 0.08% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 25.47%
Bolton Wanderers
0-1 @ 9.3% ▼ (-0.59)
1-2 @ 8.72% ▲ (+0.20)
0-2 @ 6.78% ▼ (-0.30)
1-3 @ 4.11% ▲ (+0.18)
0-3 @ 2.95% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.69% ▲ (+0.22)
Other @ 5.72% ▲ (+0.42)
Total : 40.27%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 39
Mar 16, 2024 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 59' yellowcard
  • Kane Wilson 78' goal
  • yellowcard Eoin Toal 28'
League One Gameweek 6
Sep 2, 2023 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 2
FT University of Bolton Stadium
  • Dion Charles 43' goal
  • Dion Charles 43' goal
  • Ricardo Santos 60' yellowcard
  • Tyrese Fornah 65' goal
  • George Thomason 70' yellowcard
  • Randell Williams 84' yellowcard
  • goal Conor Hourihane 34'
  • goal Conor Hourihane 34'
  • yellowcard Korey Smith 43'
  • yellowcard Korey Smith 43'
  • redcard Joe Wildsmith 48'
  • redcard Joe Wildsmith 48'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 70'
League One Gameweek 28
Jan 21, 2023 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 16' goal
  • Conor Hourihane 72' goal
  • goal Kieran Sadlier 90'+3'
League One Gameweek 23
Dec 27, 2022 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT University of Bolton Stadium
Championship Gameweek 42
Apr 13, 2019 3.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT Pride Park Stadium (Derby)
  • Bradley Johnson 28' yellowcard
  • Craig Bryson 37' goal
  • Mason Mount 45' goal
  • Mason Mount 55' goal
  • Mason Mount 82' goal
  • yellowcard Sammy Ameobi 31'
Championship Gameweek 10
Sep 29, 2018 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Macron Stadium (Bolton)
  • Craig Noone 10' goal
  • Josh Magennis 25' yellowcard
  • Pawel Olkowski 28' yellowcard
  • Jason Lowe 45' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Bradley Johnson 44'