Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 57.45%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 17.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.1%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (7.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Burnley in this match.