Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 45.74%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.55%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Sturm Graz	Draw	RB Leipzig
31.68% ( 0.59)	22.58% ( -0.1)	45.74% ( -0.49)

Both teams to score 65.24% (

0.7)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.7% (

0.79)

35.29% (

-0.79)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.68% (

0.87)

57.31% (

-0.88)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.64% (

0.72)

22.36% (

-0.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.15% (

1.08)

55.85% (

-1.08)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.03% (

0.12)

15.97% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.74% (

0.23)

45.26% (

-0.23)

Score Analysis

Sturm Graz 31.68%

RB Leipzig 45.74%

Draw 22.58%

Sturm Graz	Draw	RB Leipzig
2-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 5.35% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.67% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 2% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.31% Total : 31.68%	1-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 6.74% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 3.57% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.58%	1-2 @ 9% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 6.55% ( -0.24) 0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 5.5% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 3.67% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 2.53% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.89% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.04) 3-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.04) 1-5 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 45.74%