Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 45.74%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.55%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.