Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 62.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 16.94%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 1-2 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.