Champions League
Jan 21, 2025 5.45pm
5
0
HT : 1 0
FT Gewiss Stadium
  • Mateo Retegui 12' goal
  • Lazar Samardzic 36' yellowcard
  • Mario Pasalic 58' goal
  • Charles De Ketelaere 63' goal
  • Ademola Lookman 90' goal
  • Marco Brescianini 90'+4' goal

Atalanta BC vs Sturm Graz - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Dec 10, 2024 8.00pm
Atalanta 2 - 3 Real Madrid

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Dec 11, 2024 5.45pm
Lille 3 - 2 Sturm Graz

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 62.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 16.94%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 1-2 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result

Atalanta BC 62.63% (+0.02)
Draw 20.43% (-0.01)
Sturm Graz 16.94% (-0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.51% (-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5 58.79% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 41.21% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 36.39% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 63.6% (-0.01)
Over 4.5 19.32% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 80.68% (-0.01)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5 87.41% (+0.01)
Under 0.5 12.58% (-0.01)
Over 1.5 61.33% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 38.67% (-0.02)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5 62.36% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 37.64% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 25.58% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 74.42% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Atalanta BC 62.62%
Draw 20.43%
Sturm Graz 16.94%
Atalanta BC
2-0 @ 10.17%
2-1 @ 9.94%
1-0 @ 9.82% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 7.03% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.87% (+0.01)
4-0 @ 3.64% (+0.01)
4-1 @ 3.56% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.36%
4-2 @ 1.74%
5-0 @ 1.51% (+0.01)
5-1 @ 1.48% (+0.01)
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 62.62%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.59% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.74% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.09%
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 20.43%
Sturm Graz
1-2 @ 4.69% (-0.01)
0-1 @ 4.63% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 2.26% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.58% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 1.53% (-0.01)
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 16.94%

Head to Head

Europa League
Nov 9, 2023 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Gewiss Stadium
  • Berat Djimsiti 50' goal
  • yellowcard Jon Gorenc Stankovic 45'+2'
  • yellowcard David Schnegg 81'
Europa League
Oct 26, 2023 5.45pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT UPC-Arena
  • Alexander Prass 13' goal
  • Otar Kiteishvili 45'+2' yellowcard
  • Stefan Hierlander 45'+7' yellowcard
  • Stefan Hierlander 52' redcard
  • Szymon Wlodarczyk 80' goal
  • goal Luis Muriel 34'
  • goal Luis Muriel 45'+7'
  • yellowcard Ademola Lookman 45'+7'
  • yellowcard Mitchel Bakker 82'