Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 21

Jan 18, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
2 - 3
Napoli

Retegui (16'), Lookman (55')
Djimsiti (64'), Ruggeri (66'), Scalvini (76'), Hien (85')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Politano (27'), McTominay (40'), Lukaku (78')
Neres (42'), Conte (74'), McTominay (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Atalanta 1-1 Juventus
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Napoli

All competitions

Last Game: Napoli 2-0 Hellas Verona
Sunday, January 12 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Napoli
44.7% ( 0)	25.94% ( -0.12)	29.35% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 52.26% (

0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.26% (

0.55)

51.74% (

-0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.48% (

0.47)

73.51% (

-0.47)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.93% (

0.24)

23.07% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.09% (

0.35)

56.91% (

-0.35)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.93% (

0.38)

32.07% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.46% (

0.42)

68.54% (

-0.42)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 44.7%

Napoli 29.36%

Draw 25.94%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Napoli
1-0 @ 10.85% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.96% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 4.42% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.89% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.04% Total : 44.7%	1-1 @ 12.34% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.94%	0-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.71% Total : 29.36%