Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 25, 2022 at 8pm UK

Estádio da Luz

Benfica
4 - 3
Juventus

Silva (17'), Mario (28' pen.), Silva (35', 50')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Kean (21'), Milik (77'), McKennie (79')

Reaction

Joao Mario celebrates scoring for Benfica against Juventus on October 25, 2022

Juventus out of Champions League after thrilling Benfica defeat

A late Juventus fightback is in vain as the Italian giants are knocked out of the Champions League after losing 4-3 to Benfica in Group H at the Estadio da Luz.

Oct 25, 20:53

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Benfica and Juventus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Porto 0-1 Benfica
Friday, October 21 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Juventus

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Juventus 4-0 Empoli
Friday, October 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 51.24%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Juventus had a probability of 23.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Juventus win it was 0-1 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Juventus
51.24% ( 0.02)	25.19%	23.56% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 49.77% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.31% (

-0.03)

52.68% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.67% (

-0.03)

74.32% (

0.02)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.43% (

-0)

20.56%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.91% (

-0)

53.09% (

Juventus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.66% (

-0.04)

37.34% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.88% (

-0.04)

74.12% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Benfica 51.24%

Juventus 23.56%

Draw 25.19%

Benfica	Draw	Juventus
1-0 @ 12.14% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.46% 3-0 @ 5.06% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.99% 3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.97% 4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.58% Total : 51.24%	1-1 @ 11.96% 0-0 @ 7.68% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.89% Total : 25.19%	0-1 @ 7.56% 1-2 @ 5.89% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.73% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.53% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0) Other @ 1.69% Total : 23.56%