While Werder Bremen have continued to score goals on an extremely consistent basis, their defensive unit has looked far from watertight all season, and we expect Leipzig to punish them on Sunday.
The hosts can not afford to drop any points in their last two home matches against bottom-half teams with a tough test against Bayern sandwiched in between, and we do not expect them to do so as they chase down Champions League qualification.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 70.42%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 3-0 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.76%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 1-2 (3.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
0.93) 
-0.34) 
