Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 33

May 16, 2021 at 5pm UK

Coface Arena

Mainz 05
1 - 3
Dortmund

Quaison (90+1' pen.)

FT(HT: 0-2)

Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.49%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 21.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.76%) and 0-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
21.92%	22.58%	55.49%

Both teams to score 55.96%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.51%

43.49%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.11%

65.89%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.25%

33.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.59%

70.4%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.46%

15.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.53%

44.47%

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 21.92%

Borussia Dortmund 55.49%

Draw 22.58%

Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 5.76% 1-0 @ 5.7% 2-0 @ 3.09% 3-1 @ 2.09% 3-2 @ 1.94% 3-0 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.22% Total : 21.92%	1-1 @ 10.6% 2-2 @ 5.36% 0-0 @ 5.24% 3-3 @ 1.21% Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.58%	1-2 @ 9.87% 0-1 @ 9.76% 0-2 @ 9.09% 1-3 @ 6.13% 0-3 @ 5.64% 2-3 @ 3.33% 1-4 @ 2.85% 0-4 @ 2.63% 2-4 @ 1.55% 1-5 @ 1.06% 0-5 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.61% Total : 55.49%