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Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Oct 22, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Rhein-Neckar-Arena
Bayern logo

Hoffenheim
0 - 2
Bayern


Baumgartner (33'), Promel (68'), Kabak (80')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Musiala (18'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (38')
Upamecano (51'), Kimmich (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Hoffenheim and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hoffenheim 5-1 Schalke
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Augsburg 2-5 Bayern
Wednesday, October 19 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Hoffenheim 1-3 Bayern Munich

Hoffenheim have the quality and momentum to provide Bayern with a stern test on Saturday, but we expect the visitors to be too strong in the end. Nagelsmann's side look to have shaken off their poor run of results during September, and they will be highly focused on overturning their deficit at the top of the table ahead of next month's World Cup. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 71.51%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.1%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.37%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 2-1 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
HoffenheimDrawBayern Munich
13% (0.078000000000001 0.08) 15.49% (0.015000000000001 0.02) 71.51% (-0.090999999999994 -0.09)
Both teams to score 63.44% (0.2 0.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.58% (0.134 0.13)25.42% (-0.131 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54.53% (0.172 0.17)45.47% (-0.169 -0.17)
Hoffenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.72% (0.203 0.2)32.28% (-0.201 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.22% (0.228 0.23)68.78% (-0.226 -0.23)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.68% (0.016999999999996 0.02)6.31% (-0.0151 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
76.24% (0.042000000000002 0.04)23.76% (-0.041 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Hoffenheim 13%
    Bayern Munich 71.51%
    Draw 15.49%
HoffenheimDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.6% (0.012 0.01)
1-0 @ 2.31% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.87% (0.018 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.36% (0.012 0.01)
2-0 @ 1.3% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 13%
1-1 @ 6.37% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 2.04% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.73% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 15.49%
1-2 @ 8.79% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 8.1% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 7.78% (-0.053 -0.05)
0-3 @ 7.16% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-1 @ 5.63% (-0.043 -0.04)
1-4 @ 5.59% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-4 @ 4.94% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-3 @ 4.58% (0.022 0.02)
2-4 @ 3.16% (0.018 0.02)
1-5 @ 3.09% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-5 @ 2.73% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-5 @ 1.75% (0.011 0.01)
1-6 @ 1.42% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-6 @ 1.26% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
3-4 @ 1.19% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 4.35%
Total : 71.51%

How you voted: Hoffenheim vs Bayern

Hoffenheim
12.7%
Draw
8.2%
Bayern Munich
79.1%
134
Head to Head
Mar 12, 2022 2.30pm
Oct 23, 2021 2.30pm
Bayern
4-0
Hoffenheim
Gnabry (16'), Lewandowski (30'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (82'), Coman (87')

Samassekou (10'), Rudy (60'), Raum (74'), Grillitsch (90+1')
Jan 30, 2021 2.30pm
Bayern
4-1
Hoffenheim
Boateng (32'), Muller (43'), Lewandowski (57'), Gnabry (63')
Roca (53')
Kramaric (44')
Sep 27, 2020 2.30pm
Hoffenheim
4-1
Bayern
Bicakcic (16'), Dabour (24'), Kramaric (77', 90+2' pen.)
Geiger (21'), Baumgartner (28'), Kramaric (45+1')
Kimmich (36')
Neuer (90+1'), Boateng (90+1')
Feb 29, 2020 2.30pm
Hoffenheim
0-6
Bayern
Gnabry (2'), Kimmich (7'), Zirkzee (15'), Coutinho (33', 47'), Goretzka (62')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1383233181527
4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Werder Bremen146442224-222
9Wolfsburg146353125621
10Borussia DortmundDortmund136342420421
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim133461825-713
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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