Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 50.17%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 27.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.24%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 1-2 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.