Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 20

Feb 1, 2025 at 2.30pm UK

Allianz Arena

Bayern
4 - 3
Holstein Kiel

Musiala (19'), Kane (45+3', 46'), Gnabry (54')
Laimer (78')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Porath (62'), Skrzybski (90+1', 90+3')
Zec (81')

Reaction

Bayern Munich's Mathys Tel on January 26, 2025

Bayern Munich provide Mathys Tel update after Man United-linked forward is left out of squad

Bayern Munich sporting director Christoph Freund explains why Manchester United-linked Mathys Tel was not involved in Saturday's Bundesliga contest with Holstein Kiel.

Feb 1, 18:57

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Bayern 3-1 Slovan Bratislava
Wednesday, January 29 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Holstein Kiel

All competitions

Last Game: Wolfsburg 2-2 Holstein Kiel
Friday, January 24 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 86.48%. A draw had a probability of 8.8% and a win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 4.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (8.48%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.77%), while for a Holstein Kiel win it was 1-2 (1.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern Munich	Draw	Holstein Kiel
86.48% ( 0.27)	8.75% ( -0.13)	4.76% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 53.52% (

-0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

80.44% (

-0.08)

19.55% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

62.54% (

-0.11)

37.46% (

0.11)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.01% (

0.02)

2.98% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

86.54% (

0.07)

13.46% (

-0.08)

Holstein Kiel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.17% (

-0.6)

44.83% (

0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.2% (

-0.48)

80.8% (

0.48)

Score Analysis

Bayern Munich 86.48%

Holstein Kiel 4.76%

Draw 8.75%

Bayern Munich	Draw	Holstein Kiel
3-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.12) 4-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 8.25% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 4.78% 1-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.04) 6-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.07) 6-1 @ 2.8% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.05) 5-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.03) 7-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.04) 7-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.01) 6-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.02) Other @ 5.19% Total : 86.48%	1-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 2.66% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.99% Total : 8.75%	1-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.18% Total : 4.76%