Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 64.52%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 17.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.13%) and 3-1 (7.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.93%), while for a Holstein Kiel win it was 1-2 (4.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.