Champions League

Champions League | League Stage

Oct 1, 2024 at 8pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
1 - 0
AC Milan

Boniface (51')
Garcia (8'), Frimpong (74')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Morata (84'), Chukwueze (90+4'), Tomori (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Bayern 1-1 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, September 28 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

AC Milan

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
Friday, September 27 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 56.65%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 22.24% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.95%) and 1-0 (7.72%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	AC Milan
56.65% ( 0.07)	21.11% ( -0.01)	22.24% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 61.6% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.74% (

-0.06)

36.26% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.62% (

-0.06)

58.38% (

0.06)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.25%

12.74% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61% (

38.99% (

-0.01)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.6% (

-0.09)

29.4% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.61% (

-0.11)

65.39% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 56.65%

AC Milan 22.24%

Draw 21.11%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.68% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.09% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.44% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.42% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 4.07% Total : 56.65%	1-1 @ 9.45% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.29% Total : 21.11%	1-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.59% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.12% Total : 22.24%