DFB-Pokal | First Round
Aug 17, 2024 at 5pm UK
Neuer Tivoli

Alemannia Aachen
2 - 3
Holstein Kiel

Timothy Hanraths (28'), Benschop (60')
Scepanik (45'), Timothy Hanraths (45+5'), Heinz (56'), Bapoh (90+3'), Goden (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Machino (16'), Rosenboom (82', 90+1')
Porath (59'), Remberg (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's DFB-Pokal clash between Alemannia Aachen and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alemannia Aachen

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Last Game: Koblenz 2-1 Alemannia Aachen
Sunday, July 28 at 1pm in Club Friendlies 3
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Holstein Kiel

All competitions
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-0 Holstein Kiel
Monday, July 29 at 5pm in Club Friendlies 3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 74.65%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Alemannia Aachen had a probability of 9.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.44%) and 1-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.2%), while for an Alemannia Aachen win it was 2-1 (2.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.

Result
Alemannia AachenDrawHolstein Kiel
9.93% (-0.337 -0.34)15.42% (-0.287 -0.29)74.65% (0.624 0.62)
Both teams to score 51.87% (-0.239 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.61% (0.357 0.36)34.39% (-0.358 -0.36)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.69% (0.401 0.4)56.31% (-0.402 -0.4)
Alemannia Aachen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.26% (-0.392 -0.39)43.74% (0.392 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.09% (-0.329 -0.33)79.91% (0.33 0.33)
Holstein Kiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.2% (0.21599999999999 0.22)7.8% (-0.217 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.31% (0.547 0.55)27.69% (-0.548 -0.55)
Score Analysis
    Alemannia Aachen 9.93%
    Holstein Kiel 74.64%
    Draw 15.42%
Alemannia AachenDrawHolstein Kiel
2-1 @ 2.98% (-0.088 -0.09)
1-0 @ 2.82% (-0.083 -0.08)
2-0 @ 1.17% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-2 @ 1.05% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 9.93%
1-1 @ 7.2% (-0.133 -0.13)
2-2 @ 3.8% (-0.071 -0.07)
0-0 @ 3.41% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 1.02%
Total : 15.42%
0-2 @ 11.09% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-3 @ 9.44% (0.131 0.13)
1-2 @ 9.18% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-1 @ 8.7% (-0.066000000000001 -0.07)
1-3 @ 7.81% (0.025 0.03)
0-4 @ 6.02% (0.147 0.15)
1-4 @ 4.98% (0.069000000000001 0.07)
2-3 @ 3.23% (-0.025 -0.02)
0-5 @ 3.07% (0.107 0.11)
1-5 @ 2.54% (0.062 0.06)
2-4 @ 2.06% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-6 @ 1.31% (0.059 0.06)
1-6 @ 1.08% (0.038 0.04)
2-5 @ 1.05% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 74.64%