Preview: Brazil vs Japan - prediction, team news, lineups

A fixture sure to generate plenty of interest across the best World Cup betting sites, Brazil and Japan square off in one of the more intriguing World Cup last-32 battles on Monday evening.

The NRG Stadium in Houston welcomes the Group C winners and Group F runners-up, who are vying to meet either Ivory Coast or Norway in the last 16.

Match preview

It is not about how you start, but how you finish; that has no doubt been Brazil's mantra ever since the Selecao's underwhelming 1-1 draw with Morocco, which they bounced back from in emphatic fashion in Group C.

Back-to-back 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland - largely inspired by Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha - sent Carlo Ancelotti's men through to the knockout rounds as group winners, edging out 2022 semi-finalists Morocco by virtue of a superior goal difference.

Not since 1982 have the five-time champions failed to progress to the knockout stages of the World Cup, where they are now on a collision course to meet holders and near neighbours Argentina in a mouthwatering semi-final.

The Selecao charges will refuse to look that far ahead just yet, but Ancelotti's side are purring at the right time, earning five wins from their last six matches after prevailing in just five of their previous 12 before that run began.

Brazil have also kept back-to-back clean sheets after conceding at least one goal in each of their previous six matches before taking down Haiti, but the South American giants were in defensive disarray the last time they went head-to-head with Japan.

With no Gabriel Magalhaes or Marquinhos manning the Brazil backline, Japan memorably bested the Selecao 3-2 during an October friendly, thereby earning their first win over the five-time world champions at the 14th attempt.

Edging that five-goal thriller represents one of a handful of notable results against the big boys for Hajime Moriyasu's men, who have also beaten England and drawn with the Netherlands in 2026, underlining their credentials as possible dark horses at the Mundial.

However, Japan had to settle for second in Group F owing to a 1-1 draw against Sweden on June 25, when goalkeeper Zion Suzuki made a handful of critical saves to ensure the Samurai Blue's silver-medal standing.

 

Japan

FIFA Ranking 18

Participations 8

Best Result Round of 16

Our Prediction Last 16

Tactical approach

Japan have used a 3-4-2-1 without deviation since 2024. Moriyasu has built a system that combines a deep defensive block with high-intensity counter-attacking, an approach that has already delivered wins over Brazil and England since October.

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Anthony Elanga's super strike for Sweden was just the third goal that Japan have conceded in their last 540 minutes of football, though, offering hope that the Samurai Blue can banish a World Cup curse that has perpetually haunted them.

Indeed, Japan have still never won a World Cup knockout match in the men's game, suffering consecutive last-16 losses in 2002, 2010, 2018 and 2022, while failing to make it out of the group stage on every other occasion since 1998.

Brazil World Cup form:

Brazil form (all competitions):

Japan World Cup form:

Japan form (all competitions):

Team News

© Imago / Riquelve Nata / Sports Press Photo

Brazil strode past Scotland without the services of Barcelona winger Raphinha, who picked up a new hamstring injury against Haiti on matchday two and is yet to resume team training.

While Raphinha's status for Monday remains unclear, Ancelotti is expected to keep faith with an identical XI, meaning a first World Cup knockout start for Bournemouth wonderkid Rayan opposite the in-form Vinicius Junior.

The Real Madrid wing wizard is now just one of five Brazil players to score in every group-stage game of a World Cup; in each of the previous four instances, the Selecao won the title -  Jairzinho 1970, Romario 1994, Ronaldo and Rivaldo 2002.

On Japan's end, centre-back Ko Itakura was an early withdrawal against Sweden as he came off in the 39th minute due to an apparent injury, albeit one that is not believed to be serious.

There is more concern surrounding attacker Takefusa Kubo, who is still not training fully owing to a knee injury, so an appearance in the last 32 is considered highly unlikely.

After bagging the opening goal last time out, Celtic's Daizen Maeda has likely done enough to hold his spot over Junya Ito, but midfield general Kaishu Sano should return at Yukinari Sugawara's expense.

Brazil possible starting lineup:

Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Santos; Guimaraes, Casemiro; Rayan, Paqueta, Vinicius Jr; Cunha

Japan possible starting lineup:

Suzuki; Ito, Tomiyasu, Itakura; Doan, Sano, Tanaka, Nakamura; Kamada, Maeda; Ueda

We say: Brazil 2-1 Japan (a.e.t)

Never have Japan been taken more seriously as a footballing nation until now - with good reason - and Brazil will face far tougher tests against the Samurai Blue than they did in the past.

However, Japan's win over Ancelotti's men in October must be caveated by Brazil's second-string defence, and will a full complement of options available - barring the stricken Raphinha - the free-scoring Selecao have our vote to progress, albeit after a two-hour marathon.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.