Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 41.97%. A win for Santos had a probability of 30.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gremio in this match.