Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 53.47%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 23.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.79%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%), while for a Cruzeiro win it was 1-0 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.