Cruzeiro
Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 2, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Governador Magalhaes Pinto

Cruzeiro
2 - 0
Vila Nova

Jorge (34', 34', 37', 37')
Romero (6'), Romero (6')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Henrique Martins Machado (7'), Henrique Martins Machado (7'), Poveda (25'), Poveda (25')
Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Third Round clash between Cruzeiro and Vila Nova.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cruzeiro

All competitions
Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-0 Vasco
Sunday, April 27 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Vila Nova

All competitions
Last Game: Vila Nova 6-0 Rio Branco-VN
Friday, March 14 at 12.30am in Copa do Brasil

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 63.47%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Vila Nova had a probability of 14.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.09%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%), while for a Vila Nova win it was 0-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.

Result
CruzeiroDrawVila Nova
63.47% (-0.169 -0.17)22.28% (0.128 0.13)14.25% (0.039 0.04)
Both teams to score 42.74% (-0.264 -0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.21% (-0.41 -0.41)53.79% (0.408 0.41)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.74% (-0.346 -0.35)75.26% (0.345 0.34)
Cruzeiro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.59% (-0.20100000000001 -0.2)16.41% (0.199 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.93% (-0.363 -0.36)46.07% (0.361 0.36)
Vila Nova Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.13% (-0.192 -0.19)48.87% (0.19 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.14% (-0.138 -0.14)83.86% (0.137 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Cruzeiro 63.46%
    Vila Nova 14.25%
    Draw 22.27%
CruzeiroDrawVila Nova
1-0 @ 14.49% (0.14 0.14)
2-0 @ 13.09% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.38% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 7.89% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.65% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-0 @ 3.56% (-0.039 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.55% (-0.042 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.02% (-0.031 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.29% (-0.023 -0.02)
5-1 @ 0.92% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-2 @ 0.91% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 63.46%
1-1 @ 10.37% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 8.02% (0.127 0.13)
2-2 @ 3.36% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 22.27%
0-1 @ 5.74% (0.061 0.06)
1-2 @ 3.72% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 2.06% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 14.25%