Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vila Nova win with a probability of 61.4%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Rio Branco-VN had a probability of 14.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vila Nova win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.97%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.86%), while for a Rio Branco-VN win it was 0-1 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vila Nova would win this match.