Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (10.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.